Charlottesville’s population estimate drops below 45,000 after new Census figures

The official population of Charlottesville dropped quite a little bit lower today now that the United States Census has published new estimates for July 1, 2025.

The federal agency now estimates that the city lost over 2,100 people in five years going from a revised 2020 Census count of 46,518 to a 2025 count of 44,388, or a population decline of 4.58 percent.

For many years after the 2020 United States Census, the Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service at the University of Virginia used its own estimates for Charlottesville out of a belief that university communities across the Commonwealth were undercounted due to the pandemic.

In January 2025, Weldon Cooper published estimates that used a baseline number of 51,050 for 2020 and an estimate of 51,743 for July 1, 2024.

However, when figures for 2025 were published, Weldon Cooper reverted to using the 2020 Census count of 46,552 and estimated a July 1, 2025 population of 46,923.

Qian Cai, the director of the Demographics Research Group, acknowledged via email that the higher numbers are no longer to be used after the Census bureau adopted revised numbers for the 2020 count.

“The new base population for Virginia and its counties and cities is almost identical to the census count,” Cai wrote on March 5. “To be consistent with the official census numbers, the Cooper Center temporary base adjustments used for the 2021–2024 estimates have been discontinued.”

In 2023, the Census Bureau began processes known as the Count Question Resolution and the Post-Census Group Quarters Review which allowed localities to question their counts. That work resulted in new revisions from the Census that serve as the new baseline.

Population counts for the other five districts in the Thomas Jefferson Planning District Commission remained relatively intact with the new estimates and 2020 baseline counts.

• Albemarle grew 5.27 percent from a 2020 population of 112,435 to a 2025 count of 118,356. Weldon Cooper estimated a higher 2025 count of 119,479.
• Fluvanna grew 6.34 percent from a 2020 count of 27,248 to a 2025 estimate of 28,975. This is close to the Weldon Cooper count.
• Greene grew 6.86 percent from a 2020 county of 20,548 to a 2025 estimate of 21,958. Weldon Cooper’s count was slightly higher.
• Louisa’s growth rate is higher according to the U.S. Census than Weldon Cooper’s estimates. The revised 2020 count for Louisa is 37,586 and that increased 14.2 percent to 42,924.
• Nelson County remains stagnant under both sets of estimates with the U.S. Census measuring a growth rate of 1.02 percent with a 2020 count of 14,769 rising slightly to 14,920.

Weldon Cooper Data is used in various formulas that determine funding across the Commonwealth including the Local Composite Index which measures a locality’s ability to pay for public education. The latest calculations by the Virginia Department of Education were released in November 2025 and Weldon Cooper’s 2023 estimate of 51,132 was used.

“The 2023 estimates used previously were valid as of that point in time,” Cai said. “The 2025 estimates should now be considered the most current.”

The official U.S. Census estimate for Charlottesville in 2023 is now 44,832. What sort of a difference would that have made in the Local Composite Index? What other change will these new numbers mean?

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Additional info for this post: This one was actually posted on May 27, 2026 and is back dated to March 26. As you may know, the stories generally go out first via Charlottesville Community Engagement and then are posted here. Sometimes I like to add additional material for posting here. I’ll have an update in the May 28 newsletter and that may be posted here first as I experiment with the schedule! Now on to the post!