As Albemarle County comes closer to adopting a new Comprehensive Plan and Louisa County begins work on their next update, planners will need to incorporate new data from the Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service at the University of Virginia.
The center serves as the official demographer for the Commonwealth of Virginia and population data is used to help guide policy decisions such as the level of funding that localities receive.
In July, Weldon Cooper released the latest population forecasts for 2030, 2040, and 2050.
Albemarle County is projected to have 124,560 people in 2030, up from a 2020 Census count of 112,395. In 2040, Albemarle might have 137,015 residents and 152,770 residents in 2050. That last figure is slightly down from the 155,102 projection from 2022.
The City of Charlottesville is projected to increase in size to 54,717 in 2030, 57,427 in 2040, and 57,832 in 2050. The U.S. Census Count in 2020 was 46,553, a figure that demographers at the Weldon Cooper Center believe is an undercount because University of Virginia students were sent home in the early days of the COVD-19 pandemic. Weldon Cooper puts the 2020 population at 51,050.
Of all the localities in the Thomas Jefferson Planning District, Louisa County is projected to grow the most with a 44.87 percent increase between 2020 and 2050. The most recent Census county was 37,596 and Weldon Cooper projects that number increasing to 54,467 by 2050.
Nelson County is projected to lose population between now and 2050. The Census count in 2020 was 14,775 and projections show that declining to 14,230 in the next quarter century.
Fluvanna had a 2020 count of 27,249 and Weldon Cooper projects that increasing to 29,125 in 2030, 30,487 in 2040, and 33,885 in 2050.
Greene County had a count of 20,552 in 2020. The projections calculate that going up to 22,887 in 2030, 24,876 in 2040, and 37,366 in 2050.
When you add up all the communities, the TJPDC is projected to grow from a U.S. Census count of 259,120 in 2020 to a count of 340,550 in 2050. That’s a 31.43 percent increase.
“The projections expect the Thomas Jefferson PDC to be the 5th fastest growing planning district in Virginia, growing at a similar rate as the Richmond or Winchester regions and much more quickly than most of the Valley or Lynchburg,” said Hamilton Lombard, estimates program manager for the Demographics Research Group at Weldon Cooper.
The Weldon Cooper Center only produces the population projections every few years. The agency calculates estimates each January. Here are five years worth of my reporting on those estimates.
- Weldon Cooper: Albemarle grew 11.7 percent in 2010’s; Charlottesville grew 13.8 percent, February 9, 2021
- Population growth up 12.8 percent in region, January 29, 2022
- Weldon Cooper Center estimates show regional growth of 2.5 percent since 2020 Census, January 31, 2023
- Louisa County leads population growth in region with 7.5 percent increase since 2020, Census, January 31, 2024
- Charlottesville-area population has grown 3.2 percent since 2020, January 28, 2025
Before you go: This story was originally published in the August 6, 2025 edition of Charlottesville Community Engagement. Then it was posted here. These figures will be used extensively in the next few years in all of the various stories. If you’d like to make sure these stories keep getting produced, take a look here to see how you can help!
Discover more from Information Charlottesville
Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.
